Nullification of North Eastern 2019 census results proves state's ‘low population’ mischief
The leaders tabled the actual enumerated population numbers obtained from the enumerators to prove the 2019 census results published by the KNBS were not justifiable.
Details relied on by regional leaders from North Eastern Kenya in compelling the High Court to nullify the 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census (KPHC) results have exposed a suspected scheme by the government to deliberately doctor results of the census to show a lower population outcome.
The results gathered by the leaders showed a scheme where numbers were interfered with to give varied figures, mainly reducing the actual number of residents captured during the enumeration.
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All elected leaders from the region had teamed up to fight for the rights of the residents, demonstrating in court how the numbers captured in the census had been reduced.
They argued that the population was suppressed for ulterior motives, thus disenfranchising them in terms of national resource sharing.
The region's population was allegedly reducing during the period while that of other regions was on the increase. Notably, all other regions recorded an upward increase in numbers while North Eastern Kenya recorded a decrease in numbers between 2009 and 2019.
Court proceedings show that the leaders drew a comparative analysis with other regions in the country to justify an upward trend of population growth in the region between 1969 and 2019.
To prove the alleged government's mischief, the leaders gave numbers from 2009 and 2019 to demonstrate an unexplained decrease in population growth in the region during the period – according to numbers published by the KNBS.
For example, the figures produced in court showed that the KNBS census of 2009 had recorded 995,357 residents in Mandera County, but the 2019 census showed that the county had 867,457 residents.
This presented a decrease of the population by 127,931 within a period of 10 years and the region's leaders dismissed this report because there was no reported catastrophe in the region to justify the decrease during the period.
Justice John Onyiengo of the High Court in Garissa almost hilariously agreed with the North Eastern leaders that the 2019 population report for the region published by KNBS was not genuine.
"Given all available circumstances including the upward trend of population growth in North Eastern since independence till 2009; high fertility rate, least knowledge in family planning; high level of polygamy and high level of public awareness, it was unlikely that in the population in those areas would have drastically dropped below what was in the 2009 population census 10 years down the line," stated Onyiengo.
"According to the petitioners (leaders), it was not possible for the population to drop at such a high level over a period of 10 years yet no calamity nor catastrophe like war, famine, earthquake or disease occurred. Indeed, according to the 2014-2015 Kenya Demographic Health Survey, it revealed that the three counties in North Eastern had the highest fertility rate, were most polygamous, had early marriages and had the knowledge in the use of family planning."
Numbers from enumerators
The leaders tabled the actual enumerated population numbers obtained from the enumerators to prove the 2019 census results published by the KNBS were not justifiable.
The leaders presented results indicating Mandera West and Banisa sub-counties had 318,146 and 315,144 residents, respectively.
Mandera South, Kutulo and Mandera Central sub-counties cumulatively had 416,384 residents while Lafey, Mandera East and Mandera North sub-counties had 205,434, 279,599 and 238,041 respectively. Cumulatively, the county had 1,772,708 residents according to the leaders.
However, KNBS had posted contradictory figures showing the county had 867,457 residents – a variance of 905,291.
This discrepancy between the numbers the leaders got from the enumerators and what the KNBS published was not sufficiently explained by the state agency – therefore the number of the residents was reduced by more than a half.
The KNBS defied a court order to open its servers for scrutiny by the petitioners to ascertain the claims.
KNBS had argued that the North Eastern region was affected by high insecurity, high infant mortality rate and out-migration which exceeded the in-migration.
However, Onyiengo said a question one would ask is, "Since independence, why is it that there is a higher level of insecurity when there is improved communication and road network, literacy level, thus reducing frequent movement due to formal settlement and children going to school, reduced banditry as compared to 60s and 70s hence improved security?".
The leaders argued that the doctoring of the census results to give lower numbers has been used to marginalise the region.
Boundary reviews and the creation of new constituencies and administrative units are pegged on the population of the area, which is also used for planning purposes.
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